Random stuff

Just got home from a mid-week basketball game. We played awful and I particularly played awful. Ended up fouling out with 20 seconds left but was not really able to play defence the whole last quarter with 4 fouls against my name....

anyway, we're not doing too badly. sitting in 2nd place in the league at the moment. But we're going to have to lift our game if we want to stay there. Check out the standings, our team is ANZSAC.

Rakeback and online poker

I made an interesting discovery this week.

I am a fairly regular player of poker online and after doing some investigation for a potential new site to use, I uncovered the world of Rakeback.

Simply - this is where you sign up to a poker site through an affiliate (similar to a broker i guess), and when that affiliate receives a % of your rake as commission, they pass some back to you as the player.

Well, thats interesting. just for breaking even in the poker room, I could be getting paid money back.

The stupid thing, is that as an existing customer, I dont qualify for this rakeback deal!! So what incentive is there for me to stay? I could move to another poker room and pay less commission effectively. There absolutely no incentive for existing players... I think this is something poker rooms should look into further as they are just creating a massive circluar movement of market share. I cant see how there's a net benefit to anyone.

Anyway, I have written to Betfair, and am hoping to get my account moved onto a rakeback account. If they refuse I'll just sign up elsewhere...

Update on Gold

Well what an interesting week!

The Gold idea got into a bit of trouble.... Although the USD has rallied, gold has acted in its safe haven role again.

There has been a general fall in risky assets across the board as a result of concerns over the UK banking sector and fears that there are more hidden problems to be exposed in the coming months.

I think its worth staying on the sidelines to see if a better entry presents itself closer to $1000 level.

I feel selling gold is a great opportunity this year so it will be important to think about the best tactic to profit from this. Thinking that selling gold in GBP may be an idea. Although the GBP/USD has tanked and made fresh lows this week below the 2001 low at 1.36, it is well below most fair value estimates and selling Gold in GBP may be a good idea to take advantage. I'll have to look into this further...

Sell Gold?

I thought I would pen my thoughts about Gold. Early 2008 highs around the $1000 mark with a post crunch low of near $700 in November 08. Currently it is trading around the $840 level.

Bottom line - Gold is 15% off its highs / 20% off post crunch low.

Compare this to generally highly correlated currency pairs:
EUR/USD currently 1.32, 17.5% off its highs / 7.5% off post crunch low.
AUD/USD currently 0.67, 31% off its highs / 12% off post crunch low.

What is supporting Gold?

Well as I have written earlier, Gold is generally a safe-haven investment which performs well in times of uncertainty. With fears about deflation floating about and concerns over the size of the projected US budget deficit, Gold has managed to hold its value quite well.

BUT - I see this as a good time to sell Gold. Risk 900 for initial target of 700, final target of 500.

I am bullish USD, I see AUD and EUR falling and also Gold falling. But of these I believe Gold is offering a better entry level with much more potential downside.

Lets see how this plays out.

Whats in store for 2009?

There hasnt been much activity from me on the blogging front lately for a number of reasons... but the festivities are over for now and 2009 offers the opportuinty to start a some new things.

So first of all, I have decided to try and devote more time to keeping this blog alive.... or even bringing it to life!! I am going to write an article each week about any topic that takes my fancy, financial markets to online poker to sports. If I come up with anything interesting, I'll post up the story.

Firstly, a few thoughts about the FX market. The good old Aussie battler had had a nice bounce through December and sits now a good 20% off its lows of 60c. Against the GBP it is back near its highs of the last 5 years at just over 2 aud to the pound. The brief spike in GBP/AUD to the 2.70 highs now seems like a distant memory. Especially for us Aussies living in the UK, it was just a massive tease..

Through this year though I would be inclined to see the GBP bounce back a bit. Personally I am a bit of an AUD bear and I like it back down in the low 60s through the first half of 2009. I like the pound to move back to the 2.30s against AUD as well, or maybe thats just blind hope.. who knows.

As far as online poker goes, I am keen to get back into my groove this year. Didnt play enough in 2008 and when I did, it all went pear shaped. I get frustrated and go on tilt regularly which usually wipes me out for a while. This year I think I am older and wiser and hope to make a bit of cash a hopefully win a few tourneys.

As for Chelsea, who knows... We're still in the Premiership race, have a nice draw against Juventus in Champions league and have scraped a 3rd round FA cup replay against Southend. I was at the Southend game on the weekend and what an awfule result.. Cant believe I sat in the freezing cold while we waster opportuinty after opportunity only to have Southend equlaise in injury time... I am hopeful/wishful/dreaming for a reversal of fortunes on Sunday against Machester United. At least we are still pretty well placed considering the poor form we are showing at the moment!!

Bring on 2009!!