Saturday, 1 November 2008

Making sense of the Flight to Quality

So, in times of market panic, there is a distinct "flight to quality" where money in risky assets is moved to less risky. This rush is normally to Swiss Francs, Gold or US short term government debt.

Gold - Understandable, its a basic measurable, alternative store of value. Not so attractive in a deflationary environment.

Swiss Francs - Well it began when the Swiss remained neutral during the world wars of the early 1900's and remains a market trait although not so logical in current times. Check out CHF spike around September 11, 2001.

US Treasuries - The most liquid instrument with, supposedly, the most credit worthy borrower. This I have trouble understanding at the moment, with the US national debt standing at USD10.5 trillion. This has blown out by USD4 trillion during Bush's reign and his Republicans are meant to be Fiscally conservative...?


Here's a great story on the US national Debt - Bush Administration Adds $4 Trillion To National Debt

I think its worth considering the actual quality of these instruments rather than relying on their reputation. Something tells me there are better quality safe haven investments out there, problem is that markets rely so much on expectations and reputations and there's no point fighting with the market.

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